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From Frank Scholten <fr...@frankscholten.nl>
Subject Re: Collusion detection in online bridge
Date Tue, 24 Apr 2012 17:32:04 GMT
On Tue, Apr 24, 2012 at 5:20 PM, Sean Owen <srowen@gmail.com> wrote:
> OK, this may yet just be an application of statistics.
>
> I assume that my skill in bridge is a relatively fixed quantity, and
> my score in a game is probably a function of the skill of me and my
> partner, and of our opponents' skill. I don't know how IMPs work, but
> assume you can establish some "expected" change in score given these
> two inputs (average skill of my team, their team). Actual changes
> ought to be normally distributed around that expectation. You look for
> pairs whose actual change is highly unlikely (too high) given this,
> like +3 standard deviations above expectation.

That seems like a good approach. Thanks!

Cheers,

Frank

>
> How's that?
>
> On Tue, Apr 24, 2012 at 3:13 PM, Frank Scholten <frank@frankscholten.nl> wrote:
>> Interesting. However, winning in bridge is not a boolean event, each
>> deal gives a number of IMPs, International Match Points, to each
>> player which can be positive and negative. The sum of IMPs of each
>> deal is always zero.
>

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