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From Rob Weir <robw...@apache.org>
Subject Re: AOO 2 million?
Date Sat, 26 May 2012 16:19:08 GMT
On Sat, May 26, 2012 at 12:04 PM, Kay Schenk <kay.schenk@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Fri, May 25, 2012 at 6:09 PM, Rob Weir <robweir@apache.org> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, May 24, 2012 at 6:58 PM, Kay Schenk <kay.schenk@gmail.com> wrote:
>> > On Thu, May 24, 2012 at 1:27 PM, Rob Weir <robweir@apache.org> wrote:
>> >
>> >> On Thu, May 24, 2012 at 3:49 PM, Kay Schenk <kay.schenk@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > On 05/24/2012 11:46 AM, Rob Weir wrote:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Just checking the numbers:  we appear to be at 1.8 million for
AOO
>> 3.4
>> >> >> install downloads.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> It might make sense to put out another story when we hit 2 million.
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > why not! :)
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >> OK. I'll work with Don on this.    But after this I suggest we only
>> >> note the downloads at 5 million intervals.  Otherwise we will spend
>> >> too much time writing news articles and too little time improving
>> >> OpenOffice.
>> >>
>> >
>> > this definitely makes sense...
>> >
>> > We might note that June 1 is the first anniversary OpenOffice with
>> Apache.
>> > Maybe the new DL stats announcement, if the timeline is right, might make
>> > note of this and include a mention of how successful this new
>> > environment/arrangement has been for OpenOffice. Just a thought.
>> >
>>
>> It looks like we'll hit 2 million sometime tomorrow (Saturday).   If
>> we wait until June 1st (Friday) we'll be around 2.5.  But announcing
>> on Friday is not good for getting press attention.  And if we wait
>> until the next week, June 4th, then we'll almost be at 3 million.
>>
>> So....  maybe we just make a smaller announcement, via
>> ooo-dev/ooo-users and social media for the 2 million mark, when we
>> actually hit it.  Then for the larger Symphony announcement we also
>> note the 1 year achievement as well as give an updated download count,
>> 2.5 or 3.0 million, depending on when that is ready for release.
>>
>
> +1 on this.
>
> I think this approach would certainly steer us in the "future development"
> direction and a bit away from tooting our own horn. Not that I think the
> latter is a bad thing, but, it would be better to prevent the "flash in the
> pan" business mentioned by Louis.
>
> As for the new climbing numbers -- well maybe some folks have been reading
> reviews and wondering what AOO is all about. I wouldn't be surprised if
> some of the latest downloads were from "new" customers.
>

I see it like this:  Analysts like Gartner were forecasting 2012 new
PC sales of around 400 million units.  Let's say 1/2 of them need some
sort of office-suite on them.  And suppose we have a market share of
10%, which is what optimistically OOo was at its peak.   So even if
everyone in the world who wanted OpenOffice already had OpenOffice, we
would expect 20 million downloads/year just from the new PC sales.

But to get 20 million in a year would only generate around 55K
downloads/day.   We're getting twice that.   So that suggests we're
still getting strong downloads from upgrades on existing OOo
installations as well as new installs on existing PCs.

It would be good if we can find a way to distinguish those two
scenarios when we enable the OOo 3.3 upgrades.  For example, a URL
parameter, even if we don't use it in processing, to indicate that the
user came to download.html via an upgrade, e.g.:
http://download.openoffice.org?upgrade=3.3.0


>
>> >
>> >
>> >> A good problem to have ;-)
>> >>
>> >> -Rob
>> >>
>> >> >
>> >> >> Maybe this can be combined with the piece on Symphony that Don
was
>> >> >> working on?
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > yes...good idea!
>> >> >
>> >> >>
>> >> >> -Rob
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> > --
>> >> >
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> >> > MzK
>> >> >
>> >> > "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
>> >> >                              -- Mark Twain
>> >>
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > --
>> >
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> > MzK
>> >
>> > "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
>> >                                 -- Mark Twain
>>
>
>
>
> --
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> MzK
>
> "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
>                                 -- Mark Twain

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