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From Ted Dunning <ted.dunn...@gmail.com>
Subject Re: Incubation capacity
Date Tue, 13 Oct 2015 07:05:08 GMT
Thanks Ross.

Good point.  And it has been long enough ago that people might be able to
look at it a bit more dispassionately.



On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 9:40 PM, Ross Gardler <Ross.Gardler@microsoft.com>
wrote:

> With respect to " I hope that we can manage that a bit by pushing to
> recognize common points of reference, move on to points difference and only
> then start discussing solutions." I remind everyone of a perfect starting
> point for this - perhaps we can focus on constructively updating
> http://wiki.apache.org/incubator/IncubatorIssues2013
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Ted Dunning [mailto:ted.dunning@gmail.com]
> Sent: Monday, October 12, 2015 9:26 PM
> To: general@incubator.apache.org
> Subject: Re: Incubation capacity
>
> I think that this is an excellent analysis.
>
> The (gut) feeling I have about scarce resources are:
>
> 1) me.  As Marvin noted, I am a failure mode as much as a contributor
> lately.  This is largely due to my crazy travel schedule combined with lots
> of short term deliverables. Marvin has lightened that load enormously with
> the report group and I see that as a good way forward
>
> 2) mentors. As Zukka mentions, the number of mentors is roughly constant
> if you subtract away those who are MiA
>
>
> I worry that the lull that others have noted in drama level may be
> increasing again. I hope that we can manage that a bit by pushing to
> recognize common points of reference, move on to points difference and only
> then start discussing solutions.
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 2:13 PM, Jukka Zitting <jukka.zitting@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > Hi,
> >
> > On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 2:50 PM Marvin Humphrey
> > <marvin@rectangular.com>
> > wrote:
> > > On Mon, Oct 12, 2015 at 8:08 AM, Jukka Zitting <jukka@zitting.name>
> > wrote:
> > > > It sounds like ruminations about the Incubator are on the increase
> > again,
> > >
> > > I hope that we can make use of some of this bursting energy and
> > > channel
> > it
> > > into incremental improvements.
> > >
> > > The Incubator is a stable platform, and it has been functioning well
> > > by historical terms, and with blessedly low drama compared to a few
> > > years
> > ago.
> > > My impression is that frustration with the institutional resistance
> > > of Incubator to change is skewing impressions of how well it is
> > > doing its
> > job of
> > > incubating podlings.
> >
> > Yes, we're far from the drama of 2011.
> >
> > > > I believe the way the Incubator is organized sets an upper bound
> > > > on the number of podlings it can effectively manage. Based on
> > > > experience and historical data
> > > > (https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3a%2f%2fi
> > > > ncubator.apache.org%2fhistory%2f&data=01%7c01%7cRoss.Gardler%40mic
> > > > rosoft.com%7c16c58f0566a547707af408d2d3868e32%7c72f988bf86f141af91
> > > > ab2d7cd011db47%7c1&sdata=6DkLFL2cvSI%2bi9cpO%2fbrzR6vmzQE4xKDInxbq
> > > > %2b270bE%3d *) I believe
> > this
> > > > limit is somewhere around 30 podlings.
> > >
> > > I'm curious, Jukka.  Why 30?
> >
> > I don't have a firm theory on why this is happening, only some key
> > observations:
> >
> > * The entry rate of new podlings has been amazingly constant
> > throughout the existence of the Incubator even though the total number
> > of open source projects has been growing exponentially for much of
> > this time.
> >
> > * The "limit" was first reached in 2006 during which the board first
> > pushed back on Incubator reports and the current monthly 1/3 reporting
> > schedule was adopted and the process of retiring dormant podlings was
> > adopted.
> >
> > * The Incubator stayed at or slightly above the 30 podlings limit
> > until around mid-2010 after which many podlings started getting stuck,
> > leading to the crisis of late 2011.
> >
> > * We solved that problem with a concentrated effort in 2012 that
> > brought the Incubator back to around 30 active podlings, a level that
> > stayed mostly stable for the next two years.
> >
> > * The number of current podlings is again growing, and some of the
> > issues that have shown up recently remind me of the problems seen five
> > years ago.
> >
> > It could be that I'm just selectively interpreting history to match my
> > theory, but from a systems perspective it does look as if the
> > Incubator indeed has a structural bandwidth cap that probably feeds
> > into and limits the entry rate.
> >
> > >  What are the scarce resources?
> >
> > Some possible answers:
> >
> > * Mailing list. There is only so much general@ traffic that a single
> > IPMC member can reasonably process without starting to skip
> > significant parts.
> >
> > * Mentors. The growth rate of the IPMC is fairly constant and, with
> > most members becoming inactive over time, I believe the number of
> > active mentors has not grown too much over the years.
> >
> > * Chair/Report Manager. Someone still needs to pay attention to
> > everything that's going around, which I believe you and all other
> > recent chairs agree is a daunting task.
> >
> > One could run some numbers to better quantify the above possibilities.
> >
> > > And how is this supposed degradation manifesting?
> >
> > The noise got loud enough to wake me up. :-) I don't have hard
> > numbers, but we do have a couple of recent failures and it sounds like
> > some people are getting concerned, which does remind me of early 2011.
> > Of course the one thing you can learn from history is that things are
> > never quite the same.
> >
> > > Additionally, I'll note that while we're at 43 or so podlings right
> > > now,
> > we
> > > have multiple podlings about to retire (Droids, Kalumet, likely
> > Corinthia) and
> > > others about to graduate (Kylin, Groovy).
> >
> > Right, this might be just a fluke.
> >
> > BR,
> >
> > Jukka Zitting
> >
> > ---------------------------------------------------------------------
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> > For additional commands, e-mail: general-help@incubator.apache.org
> >
> >
>

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