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From robert_w...@us.ibm.com
Subject Re: A little OOo history
Date Tue, 07 Jun 2011 17:58:48 GMT
Christian Grobmeier <grobmeier@gmail.com> wrote on 06/07/2011 01:35:17 PM:

> 
> > 300000 downloads per day or per month?
> >
> > 52TB per month is still a lot...
> 
> per day.
> Look at this chart:
> http://marketing.openoffice.org/marketing_bouncer.html
> 
> And please correct me if i am wrong. :-)
> Cheers
> 

We should be able to check the math from another direction.  Microsoft 
claims something like 400 million Office users.  Studies looking at OOo 
install share show approximately 10%.  Pick some random number between 6 
and 12 months.  Call it "mean time to upgrade to a new OOo release".  In 
my case the random number came out to be 10 months, fortunate for me for 
doing the math in my head.  That gives 4 million users downloading/month. 
That gives 130,000 downloads/day.  I know that is not the same number 
quoted, but it is in the ball park. 

Since this is a large download, I wonder whether the quoted numbers are 
impacted at all by timeouts, abandoned downloads attempts, etc.  In other 
words, is it counting the HTTP GET's?  Or the successful downloads?  That 
may influence the load by quite a bit.  It may even make it worse.

And let's not even get started on the burst traffic when a major new 
release is announced.

Of course, this is not necessarily a problem for Apache.  Think of it this 
way.  It would be perfectly possible, and actually quite easy for someone 
to host the files with a scalable cloud storage provider, e.g., Amazon, 
and charge $0.99 for the download, the cost of an iPhone app.   That is 
over $30 million/year.  Heck, I might just do that myself and retire!

In any case, you can see how this problem solves itself given the Apache 
2.0 license.

Regards,

-Rob

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