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From robert_w...@us.ibm.com
Subject Re: A little OOo history
Date Wed, 08 Jun 2011 14:40:24 GMT
"Manfred A. Reiter" <ma.reiter@gmail.com> wrote on 06/08/2011 10:17:02 AM:

> 
> 2011/6/7  <robert_weir@us.ibm.com>:
> 
> [...]
> 
> > We should be able to check the math from another direction.  Microsoft
> > claims something like 400 million Office users.  Studies looking at 
OOo
> > install share show approximately 10%.  Pick some random number between 
6
> > and 12 months.  Call it "mean time to upgrade to a new OOo release". 
 In
> > my case the random number came out to be 10 months, fortunate for me 
for
> > doing the math in my head.  That gives 4 million users 
downloading/month.
> > That gives 130,000 downloads/day.  I know that is not the same number
> > quoted, but it is in the ball park.
> >
> > Since this is a large download, I wonder whether the quoted numbers 
are
> > impacted at all by timeouts, abandoned downloads attempts, etc.  In 
other
> > words, is it counting the HTTP GET's?  Or the successful downloads? 
 That
> > may influence the load by quite a bit.  It may even make it worse.
> >
> > And let's not even get started on the burst traffic when a major new
> > release is announced.
> >
> > Of course, this is not necessarily a problem for Apache.  Think of it 
this
> > way.  It would be perfectly possible, and actually quite easy for 
someone
> > to host the files with a scalable cloud storage provider, e.g., 
Amazon,
> > and charge $0.99 for the download, the cost of an iPhone app.   That 
is
> > over $30 million/year.  Heck, I might just do that myself and retire!
> >
> 
> I only would like to know,
> 
> whether this posting was really for the apache communtiy mailinglist
> or an IBM internal mailinglist to evolve a businessplan?
> 


This was just a back of the envelope calculation, based on public 
information, intended for the list.  The 300,000 downloads/day listed on 
the OOo did not sound plausible to me initially, so I wanted to see if I 
could confirm or contradict this number independently.

-Rob


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